Quick one: in a 3D black‑oil frac-flow model last week, swapping Carter leakoff for pressure‑dependent leakoff shifted 5‑year oil EUR by 2.8% and moved the water‑cut peak about 40 days for a 2,000‑ft lateral at about 2,000 lb/ft proppant. Anyone else see that level of sensitivity, or is my matrix perm–closure stress coupling doing most of the damage to recovery?
I’ve seen about 3% EUR swing and a 1–2 month water‑cut move going Carter→PDL on about 2,000‑ft laterals, so your “40 days” isn’t crazy, but , it’s usually the perm–closure coupling magnifying it. Quick test: rerun with PDL but freeze matrix k vs effective stress (dlogk/dσ≈0) and cap min fracture aperture; if the swing shrinks, the coupling’s your main driver. For context, a few OnePetro cases flag the same behavior: https://onepetro.org/search?q=pressure+dependent+leakoff — what’s your DFIT‑calibrated β and assumed closure timing?