North Sea waterflood shifting to 1:1 WAG; I can only close history with kv/kh about 0.2, Corey nw=2.6, krw end=0.42 and Pc hysteresis on, but predictive WOR spikes after cycle 3. Are you getting steadier forecasts by tightening kr endpoints or relying on hysteresis, and have streamline tau diagnostics or LGR around thief zones improved recovery in your models?
I’d first drop krw_end to about 0.32–0.35 and enable Land trapping (Cg about 0.6–0.7) with Killough hysteresis so the post-cycle gas bank doesn’t turbocharge WOR — like putting a governor on a go-kart. Then add tight LGR around the top thief streaks and cap early WAG slugs at 0.3–0.4 PV until streamline tau flattens. Did your tau maps show a fast path in the top 5% kh, or is the spike tied to “tighten kr endpoints” only?
@ian_swift99’s Land trapping helped us too, but the real stabilizer was cutting the gas slug to about 0.3 PV from cycle 3 and applying a 0.6 Pc multiplier only in LGR thief cells flagged by low-tau streamlines — WOR settled without over-tightening kr endpoints… > Did your tau maps show a fast path in the top 5% kh, or is the spike tied to — ours pointed to a single top-sand conduit; if so, the local Pc tweak plus shorter gas slugs should calm the spike.
Switch to LET + Stone II and cap BHP during ‘cycle 3’ transitions; @ian_swift99, see WOR smoothing?